Last Weeks Rant – Well That Was Disappointing

For those who didn’t notice I tried to use the mail merge tool and sent a note with the subject “Funny how the conversation has diminished with all the tools at our disposal” . It was suppose to lead into this email.
Other than three people with an unsubscribe request, I am not sure anyone opened it. Here is what I wanted you to read.

I was listening to NPR http://n.pr/KOwWSu this weekend and they were having a debate as to whether we were really communicating on the Internet or just falling in love with our voice (and those that agree with us). It occurred to me that I was not hearing like I used to from friends about my articles and posts.
So I am hoping you find something interesting in my posts and respond. I will post your replies on appropriate blog or keep them to myself if that is what you prefer.

Here are the places I posted last week.

First of all I gave a lecture at Pace University to a class the Internet as Universal Service. It’s an interesting contrast looking at POTS, IP, GSM and Wi-Fi. In the end I think Wi-Fi is going to be the only safe technology to trust as end to end. I say this since LTE is being deployed as proprietary as possible by the carriers. I understood that for the first few years since the drive was there to get something to catch up to data demand. However, it’s clear this is going to be the norm and not the early adoption issue. http://www.slideshare.net/alwaysoncarl/does-the-mobile-internet

Cooper’s Law may be thwarted by bad deployments and the opportunity for competition is pretty sad. Last week we saw Lightsquared give up the ghost, I swapped my phone from a lesser party back to one of the two big players. http://www.mobilitytechzone.com/topics/4g-wirelessevolution/articles/2012/05/16/290511-cancelled-my-4g-phone-evidently-it-wasnt-primary.htm I went to order from Clearwire and realized the process was going to drive me nuts so I gave up. Pretty Sad and it indicates why there is reluctance to leave the incumbents.

Candidly it’s easier and the fact that the cable operators sold spectrum co to Verizon Wireless points out how hard it is to break in. While our friends in WISPA, do a great job supporting cost conscious customers, the general consumer market is not very flexible. When companies like Lightsquared go under and Clearwire revamps it makes it harder for the next company to break out.

I have friends tell me that Apple and Google are the real carriers and looking at how resentful ATT is that the bulk of the bucks go to Cupertino you can see there is no need for Apple to hurry to buy a carrier.

However, the market cap on Clearwire is so low and the bandwidth is so great, now may be the time. Perhaps it will be Amazon.

I should also note that I was at Blackberry Jam in Orlando two weeks ago so I don’t mean my quoting of others to suggest I think that devices are going to be duopoly like the wireline. In reality I think Microsoft and RIM are both on the right track. You will hear more about this as soon as I get my interviews posted. Let me say this the closer we get to full compliance to HTML5 the more opportunity for end to end to win. This will come up when we do DevCon5 in NYC in July. Http://www.devconfive.com

Not to be pitchy, but that’s also why I added the Bring Your Own Device / Wi-Fi sessions to the 4GWE event (now called Mobility Tech Conference & Expo) http://www.mobilitytechzone.com/conference/ . The business of the mobile Internet is very nascent and while we can be glad the carriers have gotten past WAP. We still have a long way to go before the business is mature.

Hell we can’t even agree on what’s mature yet. Yahoo! As a stock finally found a new height, but we will see if it maintains. I was hoping for a new mobile commerce model from Scott Thompson http://www.imhocorp.com/?p=939 . I guess he may have to pull a Steve Jobs and rise like a phoenix from the Ashes. Speaking of Ashes, Facebook looks like a good buy in about another 98 days http://blog.tmcnet.com/4g-wirelessevolution/2012/05/facebook-you-still-can-judge-them-by-their-cover.html . Although based on the amount of stock already out there and NASDAQ faulty T+1 systems. I may have to add a few more days for the market to equalize.

Mark Cuban said this was the most important IPO ever and in some ways he was right http://www.webpronews.com/facebook-ipo-may-be-the-most-important-in-history-says-mark-cuban-2012-05 . The stock may have single-handedly killed the tech bubble on Wall Street. I don’t know if you watched but for almost every other tech stock in the market it was like a scene from “On the Beach’ http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053137/ . Nothing was moving. Even Apple was dropping as the capital went out to meet up with Facebook.

The market however is efficient and is back to work. One thing that kept coming up on Wall Street and with Gigaom is that Facebook has yet to figure out wireless http://gigaom.com/mobile/will-facebook-adapt-to-mobile-or-will-mobile-adapt-to-facebook/ . So let’s end with a discussion of largest user of wireless – machines. I did a webinar with ATT and AXEDA last week that was very good but left me questions about the singularity being near. http://m2m.tmcnet.com/topics/m2mevolution/articles/290542-phases-m2m.htm

Anyway I hope you enjoyed my rant and linking you to most of the places you can find my thoughts. As always I like it best when the audience talks back. I hope to hear from you soon.

Kind Regards,

Carl

Mark Kelley Interview

Mark’s history mirrors the wireless industry closely and includes being the CTO of Leap and leading developments at Nextwave and Qualcomm. Today, he is doing some consulting and thinking about new opportunities in the market.
With all this history the discussion takes us to in-depth analysis. He blogs about various aspects of the industry and his life at http://spassmeister.com/ .

On this call, we discussed.
The History of GSM and CDMA and why we are at where we are.
The role of WiMAX in the market.
How it relates to wireless backhaul.
The issues of spectrum.
The smartphones impact on the carriers.
Demand and Costs are converging on the carriers roll out of wireless backhaul.
What business models are making sense right now?
What the opportunity for White Space in the market?

You can find Mark’s website at http://markkelleyonline.com/index.html

Things I Would Twit About

I have enough problems getting past my self censorship to write a worthwhile article, so the thought of random acts of twitting scare me.

Lately people are using Twitter to update their status messages, which IMHO makes the wall posts on Facebook even more annoying. I recognize that the network is for younger folk than me, but I have to believe that eventually the work of life will push a lot of this drivel to the side.

But of course, it may be that I am just overly self absorbed and should not really be questioning “if I should give a twit or not.”

Over the course of the last month, single thoughts have come to my mind that should have generated articles, but lay on the page as sentence fragments.

This is my attempt to purge them from the cache and create my own supertwist of random thoughts.
1)    Crowdsourcing Capital – Did the investment clubs do better at escaping the markets demise,  Should we have an Angel investment club?
2)    I finally had my first video demo that was based on the technology from beginning to end. How come HD voice is still not demo’d well?
3)    Can we blame the downfall of the Nortel on the DMS 250 give away of 1996.  In other words, did the company grow the sales rather than maximize the profits?
4)    Now that my Wife is on Facebook, how long before something cooler is the rage for my daughters?
5)    The power of GSM was in the interopearability of the association, why are Femtocells, not looking to capitalize on that rather than hardwiring to specific providers?
6)    If Skype can send me a phony SS7 ID of 123456 or 00000, why can’t they send me a person’s presence ID?
7)    How can a legitimate Nigerian, get help in the world, when there are so many Nigerian scams going on?
8)    Opposing views – I use my gmail account to gather the stuff I want to read and manage spam,  but most of my friends use their gmail account for legimate email, and my personal account ends up in their spam folder.

Then of course are some fun posts,
a)    If March Madness is won by a team not from the big east will they give them all four number 1 seeds next time?
b)    Is their difference between a credit default swap and Bernie Madeoff? Neither could prove they deserved the trust extended.
c)     Which is more effective, Sarbanes Oxley or a Jonathan Stewart interview?
d)    Of course the networks are dumb, look where we placed the smart cards.
e)    If you need a network to be social, that’s not social networking.

I feel like so much of the social networking environment is ego driven.  How many watchers can you gather, is not a game I care to play.  I like it when words have meaning and results.  Even my comedy needs the results of a laugh. Otherwise this is just a twit in the woods.